Late breaking news! At a town meeting in Manchester last night, Governor Sununu endorsed Nikki Haley for president. This was predicted here at the Granite State Observer a month ago, in an analysis of what we called The Sununu Primary.
The popular and affable Governor is a staunch conservative and GOP partisan. His Happy Warrior style offers sharp contrast with his father, the first Governor Sununu, best known more for not suffering fools gladly. The upbeat approach also contrasts with the more menacing MAGA approach that has captured the GOP.
Sununu’s support has been coveted, but Haley remains a distinct underdog. Former President Trump holds a commanding lead in the Iowa caucuses, despite DeSantis being endorsed by the popular Republican Governor of Iowa, and Trump has a smaller but still commanding lead here in New Hampshire. This is despite cascading and unprecedented legal problems, and the departure from the race of several GOP challengers. Most ominous is the fact Haley trails Trump badly in her home state of South Carolina. Sununu’s last effort to transfer his popularity, in 2022 senate and congressional primaries, came up short.
The younger Governor Sununu won his first term in 2016, the same year Trump was elected president. His efforts to lead his own party in the Granite State have been characterized by awkwardness, as MAGA dominance has taken hold, and demands for fealty to Trump grow more insistent. Since J6, Sununu’s distain for Trump has been less subtle. At the Gridiron Dinner early this year Sununu referred to Trump as “crazy,” seasoning that with an expletive, then urged the Union Leader to “lighten up” when they objected to his language. He flirted with running for president himself, but over the summer he declined to do this, or run again for Governor. Instead he has become a cheerleader in the search for an alternatives to Trump, joining various other GOP presidential hopefuls at events around the state, and popping up at such venues as The View, and various Sunday morning interview shows.
All along however, Sununu has stressed the importance of those seeking an alternative to Trump uniting behind one candidate. Sununu has made his move, but it is not yet at all clear who the one alternative is. Chris Christie remains in Trump’s face, and still draws a chunk of the anti-Trump vote in New Hampshire. Haley is on track to run a distant second here, but it is not at all clear she will beat DeSantis in Iowa, or come anywhere near beating Trump either place. Then comes South Carolina. He said yesterday that this will be “fun,” and he committed himself to dying on this hill some time ago. DeSantis and Christie have made clear that they are not going anywhere.
Haley’s campaign sputtered early on. Much like Sununu, she has struggled to reconcile her past support of Trump with the current effort to depose him. She has now moved into a distant 2nd place in NH polls, and wallops President Biden by 17 points in a recent Wall Street Journal poll, a far better showing than her GOP competitors. She has won key financial backing from the Koch’s, and Americans for Prosperity. As matters stand now, she is losing badly to Trump in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Unless that changes Trump will lock up the GOP nomination early. Sununu insists that once she gets Trump head to head voters will focus, dispense with ” the nonsense,” and weigh the prospect of a “GOP landslide” with Haley against the prospect of Trump stumping from the dock as a criminal defendant.
New Hampshire has a long history of springing surprises on primary day that reshape presidential races. In approximately 40 days they will have a chance to do so again. Sununu says this will be ”fun.” It will certainly be fun to watch.