By Tom Brennan

ABC news and other media outlets are reporting heavy turnout in the Granite State’s “meaningless” presidential primary. This fuels hope that the polls are off, and that moderate and voters without a declared party preference are flocking to the polls to head off Trump II.

The models currently used to poll the NH electorate already establish that the NH electorate is very different from I Iowa.  The polls were correct in Iowa, except for overstating Haley’s strength a bit.

The impact of the Biden write-in, the DNC war on FITN, the Phillips and Willianson challenges, and a campaign to urge people to write “Gaza ceasefire” on their ballots (more on this later) are all imponderables.